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Both the Chiefs and Rams are 9-1 on the season heading into their Monday night NFL showdown at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.
But while Kansas City is also 8-2 against the spread, exceeding expectations on a regular basis, Los Angeles is only 4-6 ATS and just 1-6 ATS its last seven times out playing against inflated spreads.
Who’s the better bet for this matchup?
NFL point spread: The Rams opened as one-point favorites; the total was 64 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.3-27.5 Rams (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Kansas City just won its fourth contest in a row, beating Arizona last week 26-14. The Chiefs took a 7-0 lead less than a minute into the game, led 20-7 at the half and were in cruise control from there. Unfortunately for financial backers, Kansas City declined to cover as a 16-point favorite.
The Chiefs outgained the Cardinals 340-260 and won the turnover battle 2-0, making the key play of the game with an interception in the fourth quarter off an Arizona screen pass that led to the clinching score.
Kansas City has now outgained and outrushed three of its last four opponents. The Chiefs are also 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
With that 9-1 mark, Kansas City leads the Steelers and Patriots by two games in the battle for the best record in the AFC.
Why the Rams can cover the spread
The Rams just bounced back from their first defeat of this season two weeks ago at New Orleans to beat rival Seattle last week 36-31.
Los Angeles spotted the Seahawks the first seven points of the game and trailed 21-20 in the third quarter, but a 16-3 spurt gave the Rams a lead they would not relinquish.
Los Angeles, as a 10-point favorite, had the spread covered with a 36-24 lead but gave up a Seattle score with just under two minutes to go.
The Rams racked up 456 yards of total offense and forced the only turnover of the game, which the Los Angeles offense promptly turned into a touchdown.
Los Angeles has now outgained eight of its last nine opponents and hit the 30-point mark eight out of 10 games this season.
With that 9-1 mark, the Rams lead the Saints by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the NFC.
Smart betting pick
Los Angeles owns the better running game and the better defense, and ultimately that should make the difference. So while the line on this game almost seems to beg for Kansas City money, the Rams are the better bet.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in the Chiefs’ last three games versus the Rams.
The total has gone under in the Rams’ last three games before a bye.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.