The major storyline underlying Super Bowl LV of the G.O.A.T versus “The Kid” will be bantered about for generations. However, as much as this game will involve Tom Brady facing off with Patrick Mahomes, this game will likely come down to the talents and efforts of unheralded players; along the offensive and defensive lines. Unlike basketball, where one player can carry his team to a Championship, the sport of football demands production from a ‘team’ in all three phases of the game.
When sharp bettors place their wagers either on the side or total, as well as proposition wagers, they are often targeting ‘numbers’ as opposed to making overall predictions on the big game. This is partly contributing to why oddsmakers are reluctant to move the spread on Super Bowl LV. After speaking with several of my sources in Vegas, they shared that when they hung the opening line of 3.5-points in favor of Kansas City, all the early money poured in on Tampa Bay. However, once they removed ‘the hook’ and went to a flat 3-point spread, all the money steamed in support of backing the Chiefs. No matter how much money arrives in support of Mahomes and the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LV, I never envision any book moving to 2.5 or lower because of the huge liability sportsbooks would open themselves up to on a potential “middle.” To explain, a line of 3.5-points held firm for nearly one week, so should a sportsbook move to a line of less than the prime number of ‘3’ and Kansas City emerges with a win by just a field goal – that sportsbook would open up to a potential financial bludgeoning.
All SI PRO members were privy to the benefit of getting wagers on Kansas City at plus-odds as well as the AFC ‘to win Super Bowl LV’ at odds of -143 before the playoffs began. Many of our members are already locked into team futures and are now looking at hedging or more importantly diving in the proposition wagers! Sign up NOW to get all the Super Bowl LV betting information!
The sharp information from the Vegas Whispers produced another profitable NFL betting campaign – finishing the regular season with a record of 68-47-1 ATS. Including the playoffs, the information from Sin City has a solid record of 71-53-1 ATS. The betting plays and information, supplied to Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo involve plays from the NFL, NCAA basketball and college football, NHL and MLB wagering.
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Super Bowl LV Matchup
Kansas City (15-2 SU, 7-10 ATS) vs Tampa Bay (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS)
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (+145) | Kansas City: (-166)
Spread: TB: +3 (-106) | KC: -3 (-115)
Total: 56 – Over: (-113) | Under: 56 (-110)
Game Info: February 7, 2020 6:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT | CBS
Tom Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl and has led Tampa Bay to seven straight wins; impressively spearheading a 6-1 against the spread (ATS) mark over that stretch. Arguably the greatest quarterback in league history will now get an opportunity to raise the Lombardi Trophy for the seventh time in his career, while looking to add to his already incredible total of four Super Bowl MVP awards.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have won 12 of their last 13 games straight up (SU), but have only gone 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games. Mahomes, who threw for a season-high 462 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup back in November, will be looking to win back-to-back Super Bowls and MVPs.
When these two teams last faced each other – Kansas City came away with a 27-24 win, failing to cover as 3.5-point road favorites while staying under the total of 56. When taking a deeper look at the game total on Super Bowl LV, we also discover that Kansas City has gone under the posted total of 56 by oddsmakers in 10 of 18 games (56%) this season. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has played under the projected today in 12 of 19 games (63%).
Financially it makes no sense to add more units on Kansas City at worse odds (-3 or -167) than our previous futures wagers. Instead we will attack the game in a different fashion.
We will look to target a specific proposition wager being offered at DraftKings Sportsbook which combines Patrick Mahomes total passing yards (300-plus) and a potential Chiefs straight-up victory. If we take a more extensive dive into the numbers we discover that Mahomes has thrown for 300-plus passing yards in 28 of 46 career games (61%) played. Mahomes overall passing yards has soared to 325.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook as well as high as 330.5 in some respected shops in Vegas. There is a strong implied win probability that if Kansas City emerges victorious it will involve a superb passing effort from Mahomes attacking a Tampa Bay secondary that is facing injury concerns ahead of Sunday.
Taking this approach we can also shave 25 or more yards demanded in Mahomes individual passing proposition market as well as avoid the juice attached to a Kansas City money line wager (-166). In fact, when breaking it down a two-team parlay of Mahomes at 300-plus passing yards in alternate passing markets (-235) combined with a Kansas City moneyline (-166) we find a potential payout of $127.77. Therefore, if we believe in backing a Chiefs straight-up win the numbers tell us that it will most likely result from the right arm of Mahomes. In addition, we find nearly $22 in added value on the proposition offered by DraftKings Sportsbook at odds of +150.
FREE Vegas Whispers Super Bowl LV Play: Patrick Mahomes to Throw for 300+ passing Yards & Win Super Bowl LV (+150)
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