September 18, 2020 – Trend Dummy
Kansas City is a huge road favorite and everyone still thinks it’s a great bet. There are games every season when every stat, every trend, every piece of handicapping logic all point to the same conclusion.
When this happens, we always pause and question whether the oddsmaker is setting us up to fail.
That’s the football betting paranoia that sets in as the Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. The line is -8.5 for the defending champs, a huge road number which happens to be the biggest home underdog situation for the Chargers since 1998. They were +13.5 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on Nov. 28, 1998, a game pitting Hall of Fame QB John Elway against non-Hall of Fame Craig Whelihan.
Chiefs Chargers Point Spread: -8.5 Chiefs, Total 50.5 as of Friday at BetRivers Sportsbook
Why Kansas City will cover the spread
We know the Chiefs are talented and defending champions and any point spread seems like one they can cover. And all the recent and historical trends seem to point to the same conclusion.
They are 11-1 SU in the past 12 meetings. They have won 12 straight games in September and 15-1 SU in their last 16 divisional games. They are riding a profitable 11-1 ATS run overall dating back to last season and they are even 6-0 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games visiting the Chargers.
Throw in the Chargers 2-8-1 ATS in 11 recent home games and the fact they are just 8-24 SU the past five seasons against AFC West rivals, and its hard to find a reason to back LA. However….
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Why the Chargers can cover the spread
We did not dig out the data on how often home teams get 8.5 points in divisional matchups, but we know it’s not common. The fact this spread crosses two key numbers (and may even push as high -9 if more Kansas City money pours in closer to kickoff) leaves all kinds of room for underdog covers and the dreaded back-door cover (nice job Cincy wrecking our Browns bet on Thursday by the way….)
Traditional handicapping theory would push sharp bettors directly onto this bet, but the Chiefs are not a traditional team.
The Chargers defense was solid last year and performed well keeping the Bengals in check. We expect the defense to slow down the Chiefs, but its impossible to stop them. An early key will be stopping the run, after rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran wild in Week 1.
The hope for Chargers backers is to have a little momentum from Week 1 parlay into the excitement of launching their new stadium – and keep this thing close.
Chiefs Chargers Pick
The line opened at -7.5 and was quickly bet up and may climb higher. The total also started lower (47.5) and is now trending over 50. Kansas City has proven in the past year that no deficit is too much, no point spread is too much.
Slow starts don’t really matter in the end, as SU and ATS win continue to roll up. At the risk of hopping on the Square Wagon, we see this KC covering this big road number here in Week 2. call us fanboys if you want, but this just seems like the right bet.
Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.